Market structure
What happens to a launch
Measured on 2,410 pump.fun launches, chosen without regard to how interesting they looked. This is the shape of the market you are betting against.
48% of launches never receive a single trade. Of those that do, half are finished within about four minutes. One hour later, 3.5% are still trading — about 1 in 29.
The figures
Share of all launches — including the ones that never traded — whose last observed trade falls at or after each age.
| Age | Still trading | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| traded at all | 52.45% | 1 in 2 |
| 1 min | 46.93% | 1 in 2 |
| 2 min | 41.58% | 1 in 2 |
| 5 min | 24.19% | 1 in 4 |
| 10 min | 16.60% | 1 in 6 |
| 15 min | 12.95% | 1 in 8 |
| 20 min | 11.00% | 1 in 9 |
| 30 min | 8.30% | 1 in 12 |
| 45 min | 5.98% | 1 in 17 |
| 60 min | 3.49% | 1 in 29 |
How it was measured
- The sample
- A deterministic 1-in-4 slice of every launch observed in the window — selected by an internal sequence number that carries no information about a token's symbol, creator, or deployer buy. Nothing was chosen for looking promising.
- The observation
- Each token was held under a live trade subscription from birth, so a token going quiet was measured, not inferred from us having stopped watching. That distinction is the whole reason these numbers can be trusted.
- The window
- 13 Aug, 18:35 → 14 Aug, 05:01 UTC · n = 2,410
What this does not tell you
- It is not a prediction.It says how unusual a token's behaviour is against the population. It says nothing about what any particular token will do next, and no arrangement of these numbers can be made to.
- It is one window.Ten and a half contiguous hours. A large sample, but a single slice of one day's market — weekday, time of zone and market mood are unmeasured.
- It stops at one hour. The holds ended at 75 minutes, so anything past 60 would describe when observation stopped rather than when trading did.
The estimate this replaced said 26.8% of launches are still trading at an hour. It came from a population that only included tokens already showing activity — selected for being alive. Finding that out is what this measurement was for. How we work