The Trench Desk← Mission Control

Track record

Every narrative that cleared The Trench Desk’s eligibility bar gets a row here — the ones shown to a trader and the ones deliberately passed over, judged by the same rule. That comparison is what makes a hit rate mean anything: a number on its own says nothing about whether ranking added value.

This is not a highlight reel. Refuted claims are shown at the same size as confirmed ones, in the same list, because a calibration page that hid its misses would not be one.

Track record

Last 30 days · judged 24h after each claim · see every claim →

Comparing like with like — each claim type against its own passed-over group — 27% of what The Trench Desk surfaced played out, versus 20% of what it passed over — 6 points better, across 17,843 claims.

Claim typeShown to youPassed overDifference
All types, like for like17,843 claims compared. 555 surging claims excluded — never passed over, so no group to compare them against.27%20%+6 pts
Resurging (retired)30%n=102220%n=6790+10 pts
Growing (retired)29%n=10126%n=7528too close
Emerging (retired)8%n=21853%n=217+5 pts
Surging (retired)13%n=555—0/20not yet
The same rows added together15%n=386323%n=14535-7 pts

Adding the rows above together instead makes it look 7 points worse, but that sum is misleading: The Trench Desk deliberately ranks earlier-stage narratives above later-stage ones, so the two groups are not made up of the same kinds of claim. Later-stage narratives migrate more often whoever picks them, which flatters the passed-over column. The headline above compares each type only against its own passed-over group, which removes that effect. 555 surging claims are left out of this comparison entirely, because The Trench Desk has never passed one over — there is no group to compare them against.

Every claim type above is retired. On 2026-08-12 the narrative rows were removed from the queue: measured across 156,812 launches, a token launched under a ticker ten other creators had just piled into completed its bonding curve 0.46% of the time, against 2.35% for a ticker nobody else had touched. This table is the record of a capability that no longer runs — kept visible because deleting the history of something we got wrong is the opposite of a track record.

“Passed over” are narratives that met the same evidence bar but ranked below the queue. They are the comparison that makes the first column meaningful. A rate is only shown once 20 claims of that type have resolved. 4567 claims could not be judged either way because The Trench Desk's feed was interrupted during their window — excluded rather than counted as misses.

What these calls were actually worth

The Trench Desk calls a name, and a name is many tokens. Anyone acting on a call had to pick one of them, so a single headline multiple would describe a choice nobody could have made. Every figure below is a floor: the peak is the highest reading observed, and the true one can only be higher.

Nothing here has enough observed coverage to describe yet. Trade observation is metered separately and is not always running; when it is off, a token's only reading is its own launch, which is indistinguishable from a token that traded all day and ended flat. Those are excluded rather than scored as failures.

Every claim, individually

300 resolved claims, hits and misses at the same size. Search a ticker, filter by outcome, or click a day in the chart to drill in.

ConfirmedRefutedUnresolvable
300Aug 16
TickerClaim typeQueue positionOutcomeResolved
$15ResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JEANGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SCGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PENISResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FLYGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WHATGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ECLIPSEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FOMOGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LEOResurgingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$WALLETGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ZENGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GOONICORNGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DADDYResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$ZAHIREmergingShown · #5RefutedAug 16
$CIGResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UNICOINResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TASANNEmergingShown · #7RefutedAug 16
$SFCResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$YEPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRIPLEPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BUTTERFLYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CATResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WALLETSGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$NOOBResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FI6900EmergingShown · #4RefutedAug 16
$DAVEResurgingShown · #10RefutedAug 16
$15SOLEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$SCRATCHResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$SPX2EmergingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$BETTOORResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SPX7900EmergingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$CHIPSResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$L&SEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$UNVAMPABLEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BOTGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WAGTWEmergingShown · #6RefutedAug 16
$GOONGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HOLDGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MOONGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$LUCASGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$COINTMResurgingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$ACMGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JENNIEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SOLGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FRANKGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GOONICORNGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UNICORNResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$PENISResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CIGResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DAVEResurgingShown · #7RefutedAug 16
$WAGTWEmergingShown · #4RefutedAug 16
$HAMRGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SPX7900SurgingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$SFCResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ROGUEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ZENGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LUCASResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$KONGALResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HAMRResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$KITTENSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GIGAFROGResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TICKERResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UNVAMPABLEResurgingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$DORYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ACMResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SOLUNAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GARLICResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRADITIONResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$STARSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UNICOINResurgingShown · #10ConfirmedAug 16
$SCHOENGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TASANNEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$SPXResurgingShown · #10RefutedAug 16
$PETERResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$USResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SPX2EmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$TINAResurgingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$JEWPTGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CHIPGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$WINResurgingShown · #9ConfirmedAug 16
$GEORGEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$牛币GrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JEWGPTResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UAVResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DR. EResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRUMPResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$2028ResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRUMP2028ResurgingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$BUTTERFLYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$AMAZONResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HORSEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GOOBERResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TOBEYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PUMUCKELResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WAGTWSurgingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$FORGEResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$FARTGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$SAMOYEDResurgingShown · #10RefutedAug 16
$FARTCOINGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BLACKTOADGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CHINAMAXResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DECISIONResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DONResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$牛来ResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MARKCUBANResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$KIPPAHResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DATBIHGAHResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SULGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TOADGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$WALLETResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JINNYLUResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$OGResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SCHOENResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$T2CEmergingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$牛币ResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HUSTLERResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GRINResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JEWPTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$WALLETSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SOLANAGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SORAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JOHNGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PSLGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$QUAKEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CRITTERGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LARPResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CATResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GOLDGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BLEPCATResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SBCGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BRUCEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CARPResurgingShown · #10ConfirmedAug 16
$TESTResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PEPEResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$SCARLETTResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CHIPSGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GANGESResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SULResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TIMGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FARTCOINResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GPResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TESTGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PIGUEmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UVICORNEmergingShown · #3ConfirmedAug 16
$RETAILResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GLASSESResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GAGResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$KIMCHIGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$UPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SCGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BULLResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JACKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PENNYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DORAEEmergingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$REGOLITHResurgingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$CRIMECATResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CHIPResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GUNICORNResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CHIPSResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MEMETOKENEmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FARMResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CATGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$LOLCOINGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LARPGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$PEPEGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$QAGINAGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PAWAEMONEmergingShown · #10RefutedAug 16
$FISHSTICK1EmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LUMBRIDGEEmergingShown · #7RefutedAug 16
$FLIGHTHOUSEEmergingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$GOONICORNEmergingShown · #4RefutedAug 16
$FARTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$QUAKEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HORNBEAMEmergingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$JANEYEmergingShown · #6RefutedAug 16
$GANIEmergingShown · #5RefutedAug 16
$REMYGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TIKCATEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$CONKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CHIPSResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GUNICORNResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$GANIEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$CRIMECATResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$NIGCATResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FROGGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BULLResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$APEDGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$KIMCHIGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WENGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$QAGINAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$REMYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$RETAILResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JANEYEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$PENNYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CHIPResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$JACKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DOGGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CONKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HORNBEAMEmergingShown · #1ConfirmedAug 16
$BAHGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MOLECHResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRENCATResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$.GrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$BLACKHOLEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SHAOGENTEmergingShown · #7RefutedAug 16
$PAWAEMONEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$ERR0REmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MEOWSCLESEmergingShown · #10RefutedAug 16
$SNUTGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MATTGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$99ResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GPResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$JEWPTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$TRADERSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SOLANADOGEmergingShown · #5RefutedAug 16
$OTISResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$.ResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$HIJAUEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$WENResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$99ResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MEMEC0INEmergingShown · #9RefutedAug 16
$GOLDResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRUMPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SWEETIEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$牛来GrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$BERSERKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$H3LL0EmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$RAKUNEmergingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$TODOGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$PIGUEmergingShown · #4RefutedAug 16
$LUMBRIDGEEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$OKYPOCAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CATOSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CENTED READMFEmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$JANEYSurgingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$HOLDResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRUMPResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$WTFResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MEMESResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GEN0EmergingShown · #8RefutedAug 16
$TISMResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$EOSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MATTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MIUResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$REGGIEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$C0INEmergingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$MUSHROOMResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BASEGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TOKENResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$QITEmergingShown · #7RefutedAug 16
$BASECATEmergingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CHUGGETResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$ELONResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRENCHTOKResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$HENRYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$SOLANACATEmergingShown · #2ConfirmedAug 16
$TAHLEQUAHResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TAMAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CANEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$CARYAEmergingShown · #6RefutedAug 16
$PUMPWHEELResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$COINGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FLIGHTHOUSEEmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$BOBGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$YOSTINEmergingShown · #4RefutedAug 16
$BOTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MEMEResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$ELONGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BASEResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$GUNNAResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$TRADERGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DORAEEmergingShown · #3ConfirmedAug 16
$HIJAUEmergingShown · #5RefutedAug 16
$DUELGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LUMBRIDGESurgingShown · #1RefutedAug 16
$FISHSTICK1EmergingShown · #2RefutedAug 16
$CATGrowingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$MIKEYResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$FATCATGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$COINResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$REGOLITHEmergingShown · #5RefutedAug 16
$MATTResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$JOHNResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$CMGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MEMETOKENEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$YDMEmergingShown · #3RefutedAug 16
$UNICORNResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$10KResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$牛来ResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$OLIVERGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$MOCHIResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$RSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$KONGALResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$DORAEMONGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BAHResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$LARPResurgingPassed overConfirmedAug 16
$EMSResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$BBResurgingPassed overRefutedAug 16
$YAPGrowingPassed overRefutedAug 16

Every row here describes what The Trench Desk asserted and what was later observed under a rule fixed at the moment of the claim — never a rule chosen once the outcome was known. It does not describe what any individual trader saw, acted on, or would have profited from; “shown” means surfaced in the queue, not that a particular reader caught it in time. No model writes any row in this ledger — every claim, and every resolution, comes from fixed rules over observed evidence.